AL-01 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Clyde Jones
Democrat
Jerry Carl
Republican
Jerry Lee Carl Jr. is an American politician and businessman who served as the U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district from 2021 to 2025.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Barry Moore, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 17 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Barry Moore) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16