2026 Races

Every Senate, Governor, and House race the model covers: 71 Senate/Governor contests and 400 House districts.

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AK

Governor

Lean R
58.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Verified 2026-11-08

AL

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

AR

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

AZ

Governor

Safe D
86.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.7 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

CA

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

CO

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

CT

Governor

Safe D
97.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

FL

Governor

Toss-up
52.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

GA

Governor

Toss-up
54.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

HI

Governor

Safe D
97.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

IA

Governor

Likely R
75.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.4 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

ID

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

IL

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

KS

Governor

Safe R
87.8% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.7 pp Low
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Open seat Verified 2026-11-08

MA

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

MD

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

ME

Governor

Lean D
62.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MI

Governor

Safe D
89.9% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.2 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MN

Governor

Safe D
98.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NE

Governor

Safe R
96.0% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.9 pp Medium
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

NH

Governor

Likely R
77.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 15.7 pp Low
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Verified 2026-11-08

NM

Governor

Lean D
57.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NV

Governor

Lean D
59.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

NY

Governor

Safe D
98.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

OH

Governor

Likely R
74.6% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.5 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

OK

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

OR

Governor

Safe D
95.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.6 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

PA

Governor

Safe D
94.9% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.3 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

RI

Governor

Safe D
97.4% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

SC

Governor

Likely R
71.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.6 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

SD

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

TN

Governor

Safe R
98.4% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

TX

Governor

Likely R
78.2% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.3 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

VT

Governor

Likely D
67.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

WI

Governor

Likely D
68.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

WY

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

AK

Senate

Toss-up
51.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

AL

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

AR

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

CO

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

DE

Senate

Safe D
97.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 12.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

FL

Senate

Toss-up
50.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-11-08

GA

Senate

Safe D
81.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

IA

Senate

Safe R
89.4% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.2 pp Medium
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Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

ID

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

IL

Senate

Safe D
98.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

KS

Senate

Safe R
94.6% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
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Market Verified 2026-11-08

KY

Senate

Safe R
97.8% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Verified 2026-11-08

LA

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MA

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

ME

Senate

Toss-up
52.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

MI

Senate

Safe D
87.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.3 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MN

Senate

Safe D
97.9% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MS

Senate

Safe R
96.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

MT

Senate

Safe R
84.2% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.5 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NC

Senate

Toss-up
51.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NE

Senate

Toss-up
51.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NH

Senate

Likely D
70.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

NJ

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

NM

Senate

Safe D
83.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

OH

Senate

Likely R
74.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 15.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-11-08

OK

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

OR

Senate

Safe D
98.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

RI

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

SC

Senate

Likely R
67.6% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 16.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

SD

Senate

Lean R
60.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

TN

Senate

Safe R
98.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

TX

Senate

Lean R
62.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

VA

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-11-08

WV

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08

WY

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.9 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-11-08