2026 Races

Every Senate, Governor, and House race the model covers: 71 Senate/Governor contests and 400 House districts.

Sort

AK

Governor

Lean R
62.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Verified 2026-09-16

AL

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

AR

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

AZ

Governor

Safe D
87.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.6 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

CA

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

CO

Governor

Safe D
98.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

CT

Governor

Safe D
96.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

FL

Governor

Toss-up
51.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

GA

Governor

Toss-up
54.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

HI

Governor

Safe D
97.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

IA

Governor

Likely R
75.0% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.4 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

ID

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

IL

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

KS

Governor

Safe R
81.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 10.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Verified 2026-09-16

MA

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

MD

Governor

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

ME

Governor

Lean D
60.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MI

Governor

Safe D
87.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.3 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MN

Governor

Safe D
98.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NE

Governor

Safe R
96.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

NH

Governor

Safe R
81.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 10.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-16

NM

Governor

Toss-up
54.4% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NV

Governor

Likely D
67.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

NY

Governor

Safe D
98.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

OH

Governor

Safe R
80.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.7 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

OK

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

OR

Governor

Safe D
95.9% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

PA

Governor

Safe D
96.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

RI

Governor

Safe D
96.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

SC

Governor

Lean R
60.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

SD

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

TN

Governor

Safe R
98.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

TX

Governor

Safe R
81.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.6 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

VT

Governor

Likely D
65.4% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

WI

Governor

Likely D
69.4% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

WY

Governor

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

AK

Senate

Lean R
57.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

AL

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

AR

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

CO

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

DE

Senate

Safe D
98.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 12.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

FL

Senate

Toss-up
50.1% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-16

GA

Senate

Safe D
80.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

IA

Senate

Safe R
85.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.4 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

ID

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

IL

Senate

Safe D
98.2% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

KS

Senate

Safe R
93.8% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

KY

Senate

Safe R
97.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Verified 2026-09-16

LA

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MA

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

ME

Senate

Toss-up
54.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

MI

Senate

Safe D
83.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MN

Senate

Safe D
97.8% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MS

Senate

Safe R
97.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

MT

Senate

Likely R
79.1% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NC

Senate

Toss-up
54.3% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NE

Senate

Toss-up
51.7% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NH

Senate

Lean D
63.6% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

NJ

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

NM

Senate

Likely D
78.7% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

OH

Senate

Safe R
81.2% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Verified 2026-09-16

OK

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

OR

Senate

Safe D
98.0% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

RI

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

SC

Senate

Lean R
59.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

SD

Senate

Lean R
60.3% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

TN

Senate

Safe R
98.0% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

TX

Senate

Likely R
68.9% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 14.7 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

VA

Senate

Safe D
98.5% Dem
R 10050D 100
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Market Verified 2026-09-16

WV

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16

WY

Senate

Safe R
98.5% Rep
R 10050D 100
± 9.9 pp Low
Moving it: click to load
Open seat Market Verified 2026-09-16