Plumbline Signals
Market stress intelligence on oil: Brent, WTI, gasoline, and diesel.
Behavioral Forecast
Experimental v1.0. Probabilistic 2026 senate and governor forecasts. The 2028 presidential candidate-fit watch now lives on the 2028 POTUS page. All numbers carry the publishable Brier score; methodology at /methodology.
Model sengov-2026-govmoney-v1 · last run 2026-09-16
VoteROI National Mood Index
Leaning toward Democrats
Right now it tilts modestly toward Democrats. At +2.9, on a scale where one end is an all-out Republican advantage and the other an all-out Democratic one, that sits on the blue side.
Shaded band is the index's typical day-to-day range (plus or minus 0.21). Tan ticks mark the national US House popular-vote margin in past cycles (2018 D+8.6, 2022 R+2.8, 2024 R+2.7), shown for scale only; those are the national vote, not this index, which did not run before 2026.
National Mood
+2.9 ± 0.21
population-weighted, 50 R to 50 D; band is the typical range
Previous reading
+3.0
down 0.1 toward R
This reading is the current national behavioral climate. The 2026 race forecasts below measure something different: which specific seats are up this cycle and who holds them. The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, so those forecasts can lean Republican even when national mood leans slightly Democratic.
Electoral Lens
+2.7
the same mood weighted by each state's electoral votes, which is where the presidential map is decided. Distinct from the national figure above.
90-day trend through 2026-09-16
Built from what Americans actually do (jobs, spending, travel, background checks, public health), not what they tell pollsters. Updates continuously.
Receipts: the model's track record
Every race in the model's out-of-sample backtest, scored called-versus-actual. This is the complete record, misses included, never a highlight reel. After November, the 2026 races drop in here the same way.
289-62
right and wrong, 351 settled races
82%
called the winner correctly
0.119
out-of-sample Brier, lower is better
| Cycle | Races | Right | Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46 | 38 | 8 |
| 2022 | 70 | 57 | 13 |
| 2020 | 46 | 42 | 4 |
| 2018 | 71 | 55 | 16 |
| 2016 | 46 | 39 | 7 |
| 2014 | 72 | 58 | 14 |
Show every call, including all 62 misses
| State | Contest | Model call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | Governor 2024 | called D 77% | D won | right |
| Indiana | Governor 2024 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Missouri | Governor 2024 | called D 59% | R won | wrong |
| Montana | Governor 2024 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| North Carolina | Governor 2024 | called R 32% | D won | wrong |
| North Dakota | Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Utah | Governor 2024 | called R 18% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Washington | Governor 2024 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Senate 2024 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| California | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| special | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Connecticut | Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Delaware | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Florida | Senate 2024 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Senate 2024 | called R 47% | D won | wrong |
| Indiana | Senate 2024 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Maryland | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Maine | Senate 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Michigan | Senate 2024 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Minnesota | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Missouri | Senate 2024 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| Mississippi | Senate 2024 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Montana | Senate 2024 | called D 98% | R won | wrong |
| North Dakota | Senate 2024 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Nebraska | Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| special | Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Jersey | Senate 2024 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| New Mexico | Senate 2024 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada | Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| New York | Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Senate 2024 | called D 93% | R won | wrong |
| Pennsylvania | Senate 2024 | called D 98% | R won | wrong |
| Rhode Island | Senate 2024 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Tennessee | Senate 2024 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Texas | Senate 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Utah | Senate 2024 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| Virginia | Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Vermont | Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Washington | Senate 2024 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin | Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Senate 2024 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Wyoming | Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Alaska | Governor 2022 | called D 52% | R won | wrong |
| Alabama | Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Governor 2022 | called D 67% | D won | right |
| California | Governor 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Connecticut | Governor 2022 | called D 64% | D won | right |
| Florida | Governor 2022 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Georgia | Governor 2022 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Governor 2022 | called D 54% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Governor 2022 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Kansas | Governor 2022 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| Massachusetts | Governor 2022 | called D 66% | D won | right |
| Maryland | Governor 2022 | called D 69% | D won | right |
| Maine | Governor 2022 | called R 30% | D won | wrong |
| Michigan | Governor 2022 | called D 77% | D won | right |
| Minnesota | Governor 2022 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Nebraska | Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Mexico | Governor 2022 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada | Governor 2022 | called D 97% | R won | wrong |
| New York | Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Governor 2022 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma | Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Governor 2022 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania | Governor 2022 | called D 63% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island | Governor 2022 | called R 45% | D won | wrong |
| South Carolina | Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Tennessee | Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Texas | Governor 2022 | called R 35% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Wisconsin | Governor 2022 | called R 34% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming | Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| California | Senate 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| special | Senate 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Senate 2022 | called D 97% | D won | right |
| Florida | Senate 2022 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Georgia | Senate 2022 | called D 89% | D won | right |
| Hawaii | Senate 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Senate 2022 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Senate 2022 | called D 93% | R won | wrong |
| Indiana | Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Kansas | Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Kentucky | Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Louisiana | Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Maryland | Senate 2022 | called D 90% | R won | wrong |
| Missouri | Senate 2022 | called R 29% | R won | right |
| North Carolina | Senate 2022 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| North Dakota | Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Senate 2022 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada | Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| New York | Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Senate 2022 | called D 82% | R won | wrong |
| Oklahoma | Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| special | Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania | Senate 2022 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| South Carolina | Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Utah | Senate 2022 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Senate 2022 | called R 33% | D won | wrong |
| Washington | Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin | Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Delaware | Governor 2020 | called D 76% | D won | right |
| Indiana | Governor 2020 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Missouri | Governor 2020 | called R 20% | R won | right |
| Montana | Governor 2020 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| North Carolina | Governor 2020 | called D 64% | D won | right |
| North Dakota | Governor 2020 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2020 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Utah | Governor 2020 | called R 42% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2020 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| Washington | Governor 2020 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Governor 2020 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Alaska | Senate 2020 | called R 31% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Senate 2020 | called R 49% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Senate 2020 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| special | Senate 2020 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Senate 2020 | called R 41% | D won | wrong |
| Delaware | Senate 2020 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| Georgia | Senate 2020 | called R 20% | D won | wrong |
| special | Senate 2020 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| Iowa | Senate 2020 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Senate 2020 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Senate 2020 | called D 96% | D won | right |
| Kansas | Senate 2020 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Kentucky | Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Louisiana | Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts | Senate 2020 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Maine | Senate 2020 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Michigan | Senate 2020 | called D 79% | D won | right |
| Minnesota | Senate 2020 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Mississippi | Senate 2020 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| Montana | Senate 2020 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| North Carolina | Senate 2020 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Nebraska | Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Senate 2020 | called D 78% | D won | right |
| New Jersey | Senate 2020 | called D 97% | D won | right |
| New Mexico | Senate 2020 | called R 44% | D won | wrong |
| Oklahoma | Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Senate 2020 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island | Senate 2020 | called D 91% | D won | right |
| South Carolina | Senate 2020 | called R 16% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Tennessee | Senate 2020 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Texas | Senate 2020 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| Virginia | Senate 2020 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Senate 2020 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Alaska | Governor 2018 | called R 44% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Governor 2018 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Governor 2018 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Governor 2018 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| California | Governor 2018 | called D 61% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Governor 2018 | called R 44% | D won | wrong |
| Connecticut | Governor 2018 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| Florida | Governor 2018 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Georgia | Governor 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Governor 2018 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Governor 2018 | called R 29% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Governor 2018 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Governor 2018 | called R 23% | D won | wrong |
| Kansas | Governor 2018 | called R 21% | D won | wrong |
| Massachusetts | Governor 2018 | called R 40% | R won | right |
| Maryland | Governor 2018 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Maine | Governor 2018 | called R 41% | D won | wrong |
| Michigan | Governor 2018 | called R 27% | D won | wrong |
| Minnesota | Governor 2018 | called D 52% | D won | right |
| Nebraska | Governor 2018 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| New Mexico | Governor 2018 | called R 22% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada | Governor 2018 | called R 30% | D won | wrong |
| New York | Governor 2018 | called D 78% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma | Governor 2018 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Governor 2018 | called D 57% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania | Governor 2018 | called D 56% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island | Governor 2018 | called D 72% | D won | right |
| South Carolina | Governor 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Governor 2018 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Tennessee | Governor 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Texas | Governor 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2018 | called R 32% | R won | right |
| Wisconsin | Governor 2018 | called R 13% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming | Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Senate 2018 | called R 36% | D won | wrong |
| California | Senate 2018 | called D 72% | D won | right |
| Connecticut | Senate 2018 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Delaware | Senate 2018 | called D 89% | D won | right |
| Florida | Senate 2018 | called R 31% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Senate 2018 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Indiana | Senate 2018 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts | Senate 2018 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| Maryland | Senate 2018 | called D 91% | D won | right |
| Maine | Senate 2018 | called D 66% | R won | wrong |
| Michigan | Senate 2018 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| Minnesota | Senate 2018 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| special | Senate 2018 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| Missouri | Senate 2018 | called R 34% | R won | right |
| Mississippi | Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| special | Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Montana | Senate 2018 | called D 56% | D won | right |
| North Dakota | Senate 2018 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| Nebraska | Senate 2018 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| New Jersey | Senate 2018 | called D 57% | D won | right |
| New Mexico | Senate 2018 | called D 58% | D won | right |
| Nevada | Senate 2018 | called R 18% | D won | wrong |
| New York | Senate 2018 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Senate 2018 | called R 28% | D won | wrong |
| Pennsylvania | Senate 2018 | called D 58% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island | Senate 2018 | called D 79% | D won | right |
| Tennessee | Senate 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Texas | Senate 2018 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Utah | Senate 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Virginia | Senate 2018 | called D 80% | D won | right |
| Vermont | Senate 2018 | called D 89% | R won | wrong |
| Washington | Senate 2018 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin | Senate 2018 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Senate 2018 | called R 17% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming | Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Delaware | Governor 2016 | called R 46% | D won | wrong |
| Indiana | Governor 2016 | called R 19% | R won | right |
| Missouri | Governor 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Montana | Governor 2016 | called D 66% | D won | right |
| North Carolina | Governor 2016 | called R 25% | D won | wrong |
| North Dakota | Governor 2016 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2016 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Governor 2016 | called R 39% | D won | wrong |
| Utah | Governor 2016 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2016 | called D 52% | R won | wrong |
| Washington | Governor 2016 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Governor 2016 | called R 8% | D won | wrong |
| Alaska | Senate 2016 | called R 18% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Senate 2016 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Senate 2016 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Senate 2016 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| California | Senate 2016 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Senate 2016 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Connecticut | Senate 2016 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Florida | Senate 2016 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Georgia | Senate 2016 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Senate 2016 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Senate 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Senate 2016 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Senate 2016 | called D 55% | D won | right |
| Indiana | Senate 2016 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Kansas | Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| Kentucky | Senate 2016 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Louisiana | Senate 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Maryland | Senate 2016 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| Missouri | Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| North Carolina | Senate 2016 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| North Dakota | Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Senate 2016 | called R 17% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada | Senate 2016 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| New York | Senate 2016 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma | Senate 2016 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Senate 2016 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania | Senate 2016 | called R 46% | R won | right |
| South Carolina | Senate 2016 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Senate 2016 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Utah | Senate 2016 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Senate 2016 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Washington | Senate 2016 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin | Senate 2016 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Alaska | Governor 2014 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Governor 2014 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Governor 2014 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Arizona | Governor 2014 | called R 22% | R won | right |
| California | Governor 2014 | called D 85% | D won | right |
| Colorado | Governor 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Connecticut | Governor 2014 | called D 82% | D won | right |
| Florida | Governor 2014 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Georgia | Governor 2014 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| Hawaii | Governor 2014 | called D 76% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Governor 2014 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Idaho | Governor 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Governor 2014 | called D 81% | R won | wrong |
| Kansas | Governor 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts | Governor 2014 | called D 72% | R won | wrong |
| Maryland | Governor 2014 | called D 74% | R won | wrong |
| Maine | Governor 2014 | called R 22% | R won | right |
| Michigan | Governor 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Minnesota | Governor 2014 | called D 82% | D won | right |
| Nebraska | Governor 2014 | called R 44% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Governor 2014 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| New Mexico | Governor 2014 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Nevada | Governor 2014 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New York | Governor 2014 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| Ohio | Governor 2014 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma | Governor 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Governor 2014 | called D 68% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania | Governor 2014 | called R 8% | D won | wrong |
| Rhode Island | Governor 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| South Carolina | Governor 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Governor 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Tennessee | Governor 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Texas | Governor 2014 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Vermont | Governor 2014 | called D 83% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin | Governor 2014 | called R 20% | R won | right |
| Wyoming | Governor 2014 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Alaska | Senate 2014 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| Alabama | Senate 2014 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Arkansas | Senate 2014 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Colorado | Senate 2014 | called D 71% | R won | wrong |
| Delaware | Senate 2014 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| Georgia | Senate 2014 | called D 59% | R won | wrong |
| special | Senate 2014 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Iowa | Senate 2014 | called D 65% | R won | wrong |
| Idaho | Senate 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Illinois | Senate 2014 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Kansas | Senate 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Kentucky | Senate 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Louisiana | Senate 2014 | called D 53% | R won | wrong |
| Massachusetts | Senate 2014 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Maine | Senate 2014 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Michigan | Senate 2014 | called R 40% | D won | wrong |
| Minnesota | Senate 2014 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Mississippi | Senate 2014 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Montana | Senate 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| North Carolina | Senate 2014 | called D 79% | R won | wrong |
| Nebraska | Senate 2014 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire | Senate 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| New Jersey | Senate 2014 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| New Mexico | Senate 2014 | called D 60% | D won | right |
| Oklahoma | Senate 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| special | Senate 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Oregon | Senate 2014 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island | Senate 2014 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| South Carolina | Senate 2014 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| special | Senate 2014 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| South Dakota | Senate 2014 | called R 30% | R won | right |
| Tennessee | Senate 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Texas | Senate 2014 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| Virginia | Senate 2014 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| West Virginia | Senate 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Wyoming | Senate 2014 | called R 2% | R won | right |
Biggest movers
The largest real shifts in state mood from the stored readings, both directions.
Since the last reading
Hawaii -4.6 toward RMississippi -3.7 toward RMichigan +3.0 toward DMassachusetts -2.3 toward RIdaho +2.2 toward DMontana +1.9 toward D
Week over week
Hawaii +6.3 toward DRhode Island +5.3 toward DNorth Dakota +4.7 toward DNew York +4.7 toward DIndiana -4.5 toward RSouth Carolina -4.5 toward R
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2026 Senate and Governor Forecast
Per-state win probability for the Democratic candidate in each 2026 race the model covers. Grey states have no race at that office this cycle. Hover for race name, point estimate, and confidence interval.
Likely R (< 30%)Lean RToss-upLean DLikely D (>= 70%)No 2026 race
Most Competitive and Biggest Movers
Most competitive (top 10)
FL SENATE
50.1%
NE SENATE
48.3%
FL GOVERNOR
51.8%
ME SENATE
45.7%
NC SENATE
54.3%
NM GOVERNOR
54.4%
GA GOVERNOR
43.0%
AK SENATE
42.3%
SC SENATE
40.1%
SC GOVERNOR
39.9%
P(Dem) bar centered at 50. Faint line is the model's confidence interval. Sorted closest to toss-up first.
Biggest movers since last reading (top 5)
VT GOVERNOR
↑ +13.3 pp D
Personal vote spread -1.17 (z -4.12)
GA GOVERNOR
↓ -12.6 pp R
Risk +0.24 (z 1.01)
NV GOVERNOR
↑ +12.5 pp D
Domestic Stability -0.42 (z -1.50)
IA SENATE
↑ +10.2 pp D
Risk -0.35 (z -1.50)
NM SENATE
↑ +7.7 pp D
Domestic Stability -0.42 (z -1.50)
Delta is today's P(Dem) minus the earliest projection within the last 7 days. Driver shown is the largest contribution toward the move.
National Mood Decomposition
The national index is the EV-weighted average of per-state contributions. Today the index is being pulled D by CA, CO, SD, MD, OK. Pulling R: DC, AK, WA, FL, HI.
D Top pulls toward Democrats
R Top pulls toward Republicans
State Composite Mood Map
Overall behavioral mood score per state (0 to 100, 50 = neutral). Hover a tile for the top three contributing indicators.
Stress (< 35)35 to 44Neutral 44 to 5656 to 65Calm (>= 65)
Dimension x Race Contributions
Each cell shows feature_z × learned coefficient for that dimension in that race. Green pushes toward Democrats, red toward Republicans. The bar to the right of each row is the row's total absolute contribution across visible races (most influential dim). The bar below each column is that race's column total (most concentrated drivers).
Senate & Governor Races
Per-race win probabilities for the 71 2026 Senate and governor contests the model covers. Bar centered at 50, faint line is the confidence interval. Local and county races are out of model scope. House races are covered separately below. Card click jumps to the race anchor on this page.
Filter
Sort
Races: 71
Toss-ups (within ± 6 pp of 50): 6
Tilt D: 31
Tilt R: 34
FL SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
50.1% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.35 Risk +0.35 Civic Trust +0.18
NE SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
51.7% Rep
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: state lean dominates
FL GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
51.8% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.35 Risk +0.35 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.23
ME SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
54.3% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.44 Risk -0.35 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.25
NC SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
54.3% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.18 Candidate Buzz +0.13 Escape -0.10
NM GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
54.4% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.42 Candidate Buzz -0.18 Escape +0.14
GA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
57.0% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.24 Civic Trust -0.14 Domestic Stability -0.14
AK SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
57.7% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz -0.39 Economy +0.22 Risk +0.17
SC SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
59.9% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.31 Civic Trust -0.30 Domestic Stability +0.25
SC GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
60.1% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.31 Civic Trust -0.30 Domestic Stability +0.25
SD SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
60.3% Rep
± 16.7 pp Low
Moving it: state lean dominates
ME GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
60.7% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.44 Risk -0.35 Domestic Stability -0.24
AK GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
62.7% Rep
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz -0.39 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.23 Economy +0.22
NH SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
63.6% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.26 Economy -0.21 Incumbent's past overperformance +0.12
VT GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
65.4% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Incumbent's past overperformance -1.17 Civic Trust +0.45 Risk -0.35
TX SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
66.0% Rep
± 14.7 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.29 Economy +0.16 Escape -0.12
NV GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
67.7% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.42 Economy +0.34 Isolation +0.10
WI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
69.4% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.26 Risk -0.15 Economy -0.14
IA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
78.0% Rep
± 8.4 pp Medium
Moving it: Risk -0.35 Economy -0.17 An additional model input -0.10
OH SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
78.0% Rep
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.29 Candidate Buzz +0.12 Economy -0.09
NM SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
78.7% Dem
± 17.0 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.42 Candidate Buzz -0.18 Escape +0.14
MT SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
79.1% Rep
± 14.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.27 Candidate Buzz -0.20 An additional model input -0.15
OH GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
80.5% Rep
± 8.7 pp Medium
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.29 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.24 Candidate Buzz +0.12
GA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
80.8% Dem
± 11.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.24 Civic Trust -0.14 Domestic Stability -0.14
KS GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
81.5% Rep
± 10.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.31 Civic Trust -0.27 Candidate Buzz +0.26
NH GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
81.7% Rep
± 10.0 pp Low
Moving it: Incumbent's past overperformance -0.32 Risk -0.26 Economy -0.21
TX GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
81.7% Rep
± 8.6 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.29 Economy +0.16 Escape -0.12
IA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
82.0% Rep
± 14.4 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.35 Economy -0.17 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.15
MI SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
83.8% Dem
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.45 Risk -0.15 Domestic Stability -0.10
MI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
87.5% Dem
± 11.3 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.45 Risk -0.15 Incumbent's past overperformance +0.11
AZ GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
87.5% Dem
± 10.6 pp Low
Moving it: Economy +0.32 Escape +0.14 Isolation +0.10
KS SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
93.8% Rep
± 8.0 pp Medium
Moving it: Risk -0.31 Civic Trust -0.27 Candidate Buzz +0.26
OR GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
95.9% Dem
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: Economy +0.38 Civic Trust +0.27 Domestic Stability -0.26
PA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
96.0% Dem
± 10.2 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz +0.26 Civic Trust +0.25 Risk -0.22
NE GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
96.3% Rep
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.30 Domestic Stability +0.25 Economy -0.21
CT GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
96.7% Dem
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: Economy +0.11 An additional model input +0.11 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.10
RI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
96.8% Dem
± 11.6 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.23 Candidate Buzz -0.22 Civic Trust +0.19
MS SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
97.1% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz -0.38 Domestic Stability -0.18 Economy -0.18
HI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
97.6% Dem
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Domestic Stability +0.33 Candidate Buzz -0.31
KY SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
97.7% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.33 Civic Trust -0.30 An additional model input -0.23
MN SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
97.8% Dem
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.45 Domestic Stability +0.28 Candidate Buzz +0.17
TN SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.0% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.22 An additional model input -0.22 Economy -0.12
MN GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.0% Dem
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.45 Domestic Stability +0.28 Candidate Buzz +0.17
OR SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.0% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Economy +0.38 Civic Trust +0.27 Domestic Stability -0.26
DE SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.1% Dem
± 12.2 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.35 Civic Trust +0.26 An additional model input +0.11
NY GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.2% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Incumbent's past overperformance -0.24 Economy +0.21 Domestic Stability +0.17
IL SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.2% Dem
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.29 Candidate Buzz +0.28 Civic Trust -0.23
TN GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.3% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.22 An additional model input -0.22 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.12
CO GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.3% Dem
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.18 Risk +0.16 Escape +0.13
RI SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.23 Candidate Buzz -0.22 Civic Trust +0.19
AL GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.36 An additional model input -0.23 Economy -0.19
AR GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Domestic Stability -0.28 An additional model input -0.23
CA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.8 pp Low
Moving it: Economy +0.43 Domestic Stability +0.21 Civic Trust -0.19
ID GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 An additional model input -0.27 Candidate Buzz -0.24
IL GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.29 Candidate Buzz +0.28 Civic Trust -0.23
MA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.33 Domestic Stability +0.29 Candidate Buzz +0.19
MD GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 11.5 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability +0.42 Civic Trust +0.38 Candidate Buzz +0.35
OK GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Domestic Stability -0.42 Incumbent's past overperformance +0.28
SD GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz -0.33 Economy -0.33 Risk -0.31
WY GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Risk +0.35 An additional model input -0.34 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.21
AL SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.36 An additional model input -0.23 Economy -0.19
AR SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Domestic Stability -0.28 An additional model input -0.23
CO SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.18 Risk +0.16 Escape +0.13
ID SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 An additional model input -0.27 Candidate Buzz -0.24
LA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Incumbent's past overperformance -0.31 Domestic Stability -0.30
MA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.33 Domestic Stability +0.29 Candidate Buzz +0.19
NJ SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability +0.32 Candidate Buzz +0.17 Risk +0.17
OK SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.45 Domestic Stability -0.42 An additional model input -0.25
VA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Dem
± 10.1 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability +0.36 Civic Trust +0.34 Candidate Buzz +0.30
WV SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.2 pp Low
Moving it: Candidate Buzz -0.31 An additional model input -0.31 Risk +0.24
WY SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
98.5% Rep
± 9.9 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.35 An additional model input -0.34 Civic Trust -0.20
Live Indicators
Information is in the trained model as of the v8 retrain (May 30, +0.33 coefficient). Information_candidates joined in v9 (+0.47 coefficient, z clipped at ±1.5). Money state-level data is sparse pending Sprint 2 upstream ETL expansion. Pulse reports only states with an actual state-race horserace poll in the week.
Information
In model since v8 (May 30)
mean 49.9, sd 14.50, coverage 51 of 51
High: DC 100.0 WI 79.4 WY 78.8
Low: HI 22.2 MS 27.5 LA 32.6
Google Trends political search interest using six fixed terms (election, vote, polling place, Trump, Biden, Harris). Coefficient +0.33 toward P(Dem).
As of 2026-08-01
Candidate Buzz
In model since v9 (May 30)
mean 51.9, sd 10.95, coverage 51 of 51
High: MI 85.8 RI 82.2 CO 67.2
Low: WY 30.3 IN 32.5 MS 32.9
Google Trends political search interest aggregated across the active candidate roster. Coefficient +0.47 toward P(Dem); z-score clipped at +/-1.5 to suppress candidate-fame outliers.
As of 2026-09-16
Donor Energy
Sprint 2 pending
mean 50.9, sd 14.58, coverage 51 of 51
High: MN 86.3 HI 78.6 NE 78.0
Low: NM 21.5 IN 28.2 WV 28.7
FEC donor velocity (federal + state-level rollup). State-level historical coverage is sparse pending Sprint 2 upstream ETL expansion.
As of 2026-09-16
Pulse
Limited data (17 of 51 states)
mean 50.3, sd 12.03, coverage 17 of 51
High: PA 68.7 CT 68.5 NC 65.7
Low: TN 27.3 SC 30.4 AR 36.9
VoteHub state-race horserace polling margin. Coverage varies week to week based on poll availability (typically 3-6 states). States without a recent poll are intentionally excluded rather than inheriting the national generic-ballot margin.
As of 2026-09-16