AL-02 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
89% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Shomari Figures
Democrat
Shomari Coleman Figures is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative from Alabama's 2nd congressional district since 2025.
Rhett Marques
Republican
Rhett William Marques is an American politician and businessman serving as a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 91st district.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16