AZ-01 · House · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this seat
56% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Amish Shah
Democrat
Amish Shah is an American politician and physician who served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives for District 5 from 2023 to 2024.
Jay Feely
Republican
Thomas James Feely is an American former professional football player and politician.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, David Schweikert, who is not running (running for governor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, David Schweikert) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16