AZ-02 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
84% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Jonathan Nez
Democrat
Jonathan Nez is a Navajo politician who served as the 9th President of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023.
Eli Crane
Republican
Elijah James Crane is an American politician, businessman, and former United States Navy SEAL serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16