AZ-04 · House · 2026

Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat

98% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Greg Stanton

Democrat

98%

Gregory John Stanton is an American lawyer and politician who is the U.S. representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district, serving since 2019.

Zuhdi Jasser

Republican

Mohamed Zuhdi Jasser is an American religious and political commentator and a medical doctor specializing in internal medicine and nuclear cardiology in Phoenix, Arizona.

Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 3 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16