AZ-05 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
93% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Elizabeth Lee
Democrat
Mark Lamb
Republican
Mark William Lamb is a Canadian former professional ice hockey player, and current general manager and head coach of the Prince George Cougars of the Western Hockey League (WHL).
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Andy Biggs, who is not running (running for governor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 9 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Andy Biggs) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16