AZ-06 · House · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
63% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
JoAnna Mendoza
Democrat
Juan Ciscomani
Republican
Juan Ciscomani III is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16