AZ-09 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Danielle Sterbinsky
Democrat
Paul Gosar
Republican
Paul Anthony Gosar is an American politician and former dentist serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2011.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 15 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16