CA-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
80% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Mike McGuire
Democrat
James Gallagher
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09