CA-10 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Mark DeSaulnier
Democrat
Mark James DeSaulnier is an American politician who has served as a U.S. representative from California since 2015.
Jeffrey Frese
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 18 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09