CA-12 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominee is not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Lateefah Simon
Democrat
Lateefah Aaliyah Simon is an American politician who is the U.S. representative for California's 12th congressional district since January 2025.
Not yet determined
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 39 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16