CA-23 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
93% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Democrat
Jay Obernolte
Republican
Jay Phillip Obernolte is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for California's 23rd district since 2021, when it was numbered as the 8th district.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 9 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16