CA-03 · House · 2026

Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat

85% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Ami Bera

Democrat

85%

Amerish Babulal "Ami" Bera is an American physician and politician who has been serving as a member of the United States House of Representatives from California since 2013.

Robb Tucker

Republican

15%

Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 6 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16