CA-30 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Laura Friedman
Democrat
Laura Syril Friedman is an American politician and former film producer who is the member for California's 30th congressional district in the House of Representatives.
Scott Meyers
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-15 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 22 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09