CA-40 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
81% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominee is not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Ken Calvert
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 6 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16