CA-45 · House · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
71% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Derek Tran
Democrat
Derek Truyen Tran is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative from California's 45th congressional district since 2025.
Chuong Vo
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 3 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09