CA-48 · House · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this seat
59% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Wilpert
Democrat
Wilpert is a German surname.
Jim Desmond
Republican
Jim Desmond is an American politician and retired aviator serving as a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors since 2019, representing the fifth district.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Darrell Issa, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Darrell Issa) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16