DE At-Large · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominee is not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Sarah McBride
Democrat
Sarah Elizabeth McBride is an American politician, author, and LGBTQ rights activist serving as the U.S. representative for Delaware's at-large congressional district since 2025.
Not yet determined
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16