FL-11 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
89% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
James Pericola
Democrat
Joe Strada
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Daniel Webster, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Fundraising as of 2026-11-03 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Daniel Webster) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09