FL-14 · House · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
78% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Kathy Castor
Democrat
Katherine Anne Castor is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 14th congressional district since 2007.
Mike Beltran
Republican
Mike Beltran is an American attorney and politician who served in the Florida House of Representatives, representing the 70th district, which includes part of Hillsborough County.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16