FL-15 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
92% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Robert People
Democrat
Laurel Lee
Republican
Laurel Frances Lee is an American attorney, former judge, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 15th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 9 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16