FL-16 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
85% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Kelly Kirschner
Democrat
Sydney Gruters
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Vern Buchanan, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 6 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Vern Buchanan) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16