FL-26 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
95% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Nicole Locklin
Democrat
Mario Diaz-Balart
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 9 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09