FL-03 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
95% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Seth Harp
Democrat
Seth Harp is an American politician who served in the Georgia State Senate from 2001 to 2011.
Kat Cammack
Republican
Kathryn Christine Cammack is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 3rd congressional district.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16