FL-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
82% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
LaShonda Holloway
Democrat
Aaron Bean
Republican
Aaron Paul Bean is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 4th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09