FL-08 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
92% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Jennifer Jenkins
Democrat
Mike Haridopolos
Republican
Michael John Haridopolos is an American politician, lobbyist and former educator serving as the U.S. representative from Florida's 8th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16