HI-02 · House · 2026

Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat

100% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Jill Tokuda

Democrat

100%

Jill Naomi Tokuda is an American politician and business owner serving as the U.S. representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district since 2023.

Brenton Awa

Republican

Brenton Patrick Chokei Kawika Awa is an American politician and former television news anchor has served as the Minority Leader of the Hawaii Senate since 2024.

Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 13 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16