IA-01 · House · 2026
Republicans are favored to win this seat
64% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Christina Bohannan
Democrat
Christina Bohannan is an American politician and law professor who served as the Iowa State Representative for the 85th district from 2021 to 2023.
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Republican
Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks is an American physician and politician who has served as a U.S. representative from Iowa since 2021.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 4 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16