IA-02 · House · 2026
Republicans are favored to win this seat
75% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Lindsay James
Democrat
Joe Mitchell
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Ashley Hinson, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 4 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Ashley Hinson) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16