IA-03 · House · 2026
Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat
51% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Sarah Trone Garriott
Democrat
Sarah Trone Garriott is an American politician and minister serving as a member of the Iowa Senate from the 14th district since 2021.
Zach Nunn
Republican
Zachary Martin Nunn is an American politician and United States Air Force officer who has served as the U.S. representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16