IA-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
98% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Dave Dawson
Democrat
Chris McGowan
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Randy Feenstra, who is not running (running for governor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 16 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Randy Feenstra) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16