IL-10 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Brad Schneider
Democrat
Bradley Scott Schneider is an American businessman and politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Illinois's 10th congressional district since 2017 and previously from 2013 to 2015.
Carl Lambrecht
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 11 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16