IL-16 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
96% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Paul Nolley
Democrat
Darin LaHood
Republican
Darin McKay LaHood is an American attorney and politician who has served as a U.S. representative from Illinois since 2015.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 11 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16