IL-02 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Donna Miller
Democrat
Donna Lynne Miller is an American politician currently serving as a Cook County commissioner, representing the board's 6th district.
Mike Noack
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Robin Kelly, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 17 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Robin Kelly) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16