IL-04 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Patty Garcia
Democrat
Lupe Castillo
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Jesus Garcia, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 15 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Jesus Garcia) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09