IN-06 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Cynthia Wirth
Democrat
Jefferson Shreve
Republican
Jefferson Scott Shreve is an American politician and businessman who has served as the U.S. representative from Indiana's 6th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 16 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16