KS-03 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
98% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Sharice Davids
Democrat
Sharice Lynnette Davids is an American politician, attorney, and former mixed martial artist serving as the U.S. representative from Kansas's 3rd congressional district since 2019.
Eric Jenkins
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 3 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16