KY-06 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
89% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Zach Dembo
Democrat
Ralph Alvarado
Republican
Ralph A. Alvarado is an American physician and politician who most recently served as the 15th Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health from 2023 until his resignation in 2025.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Andy Barr, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Andy Barr) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16