MD-08 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Jamie Raskin
Democrat
Jamin Ben "Jamie" Raskin is an American attorney, law professor, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Maryland's 8th congressional district since 2017.
Cheryl Riley
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 30 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16