ME-02 · House · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
88% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Matthew Dunlap
Democrat
Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine who has served as the Maine state auditor since November 2022.
Paul LePage
Republican
Paul Richard LePage is an American businessman and politician who served as the 74th governor of Maine from 2011 to 2019.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Jared Golden, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 4 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Jared Golden) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16