MI-01 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Callie Barr
Democrat
Jack Bergman
Republican
John Warren Bergman is an American politician and retired United States Marine Corps lieutenant general serving as the U.S. representative from Michigan's 1st congressional district since 2017.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16