MI-10 · House · 2026
Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat
59% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Christina Hines
Democrat
Michael Bouchard
Republican
Michael J. Bouchard is an American law enforcement officer and politician who has served as the sheriff of Oakland County, Michigan, since 1999.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, John James, who is not running (running for governor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, John James) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16