MI-13 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Donavan McKinney
Democrat
Donavan McKinney is an American politician serving as a member of the Michigan House of Representatives since 2023, currently representing the 11th district.
Taras Nykoriak
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Shri Thanedar, who is not running (lost primary).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 22 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Shri Thanedar) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16