MI-08 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Democrat
Kristen Lee McDonald Rivet is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district since 2025.
Thomas J. Smith
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09