MN-02 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Matt Little
Democrat
Matthew Martin Little is an American attorney and politician and a former member of the Minnesota Senate.
Eric Pratt
Republican
Eric R. Pratt is a Minnesota politician and member of the Minnesota Senate.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Angie Craig, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Angie Craig) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16