MN-05 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Ilhan Omar
Democrat
Ilhan Abdullahi Omar is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Minnesota's 5th congressional district since 2019.
John Nagel
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 32 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16