MN-06 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Doug Chapin
Democrat
Tom Emmer
Republican
Thomas Earl Emmer Jr. is an American attorney, lobbyist, and politician who has served as majority whip in the United States House of Representatives since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 9 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16