MO-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
96% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Jordan Herrera
Democrat
Mark Alford
Republican
Mark Allen Alford Sr. is an American politician and former television news anchor serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's 4th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16